Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $11,739$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(401 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.0\) days)
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $197$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(40.1 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(73.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{190.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 79.7)}}\) (asimptote \(190.4\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,771$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $84,985$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.29 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(62.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85,800.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 95.3)}}\) (asimptote \(85,800.8\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,835$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.96 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(93.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,722.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 51.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,722.3\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $79,150$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $11,296$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(4.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(125.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,168.5}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9,168.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $264$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.19 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{249.7}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 31.2)}}\) (asimptote \(249.7\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,684$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,261$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(2.67 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(101.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,482.8}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 51.4)}}\) (asimptote \(7,482.8\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $336$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(150 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(115.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{328.6}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(328.6\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $575$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $18,163$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(4.83 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(93.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,812.6}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 53.2)}}\) (asimptote \(14,812.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $627$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(289 \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(126.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{606.9}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 34.6)}}\) (asimptote \(606.9\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,472$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,136$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(3.02 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,870.2}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 30.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,870.2\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(2.32 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.0}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 22.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10.0\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $88$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $87,825$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(2.3 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(91.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{69,735.3}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 50.3)}}\) (asimptote \(69,735.3\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,906$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(4.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(117.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,721.0}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 38.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,721.0\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $59,364$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $346,513$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(9.31 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(88.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{306,401.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 58.5)}}\) (asimptote \(306,401.1\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $41,638$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.58 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(104.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,680.0}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(40,680.0\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $303,069$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $276,338$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(119.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{245,025.6}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 45.1)}}\) (asimptote \(245,025.6\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35,534$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.42 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(118.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,707.6}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.8)}}\) (asimptote \(34,707.6\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $31,194$ on 2020-09-05
